Clinical Trials / Medical statistics

Scientific method of detecting differences between treatments
Detect merits of specific treatments for patients with specific diseases
Provide evidence of efficacy and safety

 

Ethics behind clinical trials (declaration of Helsinki 1961)

  1. Patients should not be denied effective treatments
  2. New treatment must be safe (no patient should suffer as part of a trial) 

 

Pre clinical trials

  • Assess toxicity / pharmacology of drug
  • In vitro / in vivo testing

 

Clinical Trials

  • Phase I: Normal healthy volunteers - to assess correct pharmacological dosing, route of administration (<20 patients)
  • Phase II: Select subpopulation of patients, establish efficacy; resource assessment, if not helpful would not be ethical to proceed (-100 patients)
  • Phase III: "Normal patients" (1000s) - establish efficacy and safety
  • Phase IV: Pos-marketing surveillance

 

Controlled clinical trial

  • Active treatment compared with control treatment (may be placebo, current standard, etc)
  • Used to determine the best course of treatment

Clinical trial protocol

  1. Introduction
  2. Aims + hypothesis / precise question asked
  3. Materials
  4. Methods: end points
  5. Results
  6. Statistics
  7. Bibliography
  8. + Financial support, responsibilities of workers, signatures

 

Error / null hypothesis

Null hypothesis states that there is no difference between two treatment groups

  1. Type I:
    • null hypothesis rejected despite being true
    • detecting a difference when one does not really exist
  2. Type II:
    • null hypothesis accepted when it is false
    • Failure to detect a difference when one actually does exist

 

Power

  • Ability of trial to detect an actual difference
  • Equal to type II error

 

Significance level

  • Statistical probability of a type I error

 

Confidence interval

  • Probability of a true population mean lying within a range derived from a sample mean and it's standard error (standard error = standard deviation/number of observations)

 

Sensitivity / Specificity

  1. Sensitivity: ability to identify a true positive
  2. Specificity: ability to exclude a false negative

 

Averages / Measures of spread

  • Mean, median, mode
  • Standard deviation: - measure of scatter around the mean

 

Statistical test Data types Uses
Student t-test Paired means between two sampls Not for more than two means
Analysis of variance Multiple independent groups  
Chi-squared    

 

 

Clinical trial designs

  • Randomised (minises bias)
  • Case - control
  • Cross over
  • Double-blind (useful when trial has subjective endpoints)